Rainmaker
run 2026-09-05 17:13 UTC·nws ✓open-meteo ✓·92 marketsP&L
+109.47u
ROI
+14.3%
Record
874-520
Brier
0.077
Hit rate
63%n44172
Polymarket
678-354+17.2%
Kalshi
196-166+5.2%
snapshot 2026-09-04
Recommended bets · grouped by city, best edge first
| Market | Bucket | Side | Forecast | P(win) | Ask | Edge | σ | Src |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco | ||||||||
| Highest temperature on September 5? ↗polymarket | 70-71°F (21.1-21.7°C) | NO | 71.9° 22.2C | 79% | 0.55 | +0.24 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Highest temperature on September 5? ↗polymarket | 72-73°F (22.2-22.8°C) | NO | 71.9° 22.2C | 77% | 0.58 | +0.19 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Los Angeles | ||||||||
| Highest temperature on September 5? ↗polymarket | 78-79°F (25.6-26.1°C) | NO | 83.9° 28.8C | 91% | 0.71 | +0.20 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Highest temperature on September 7? ↗polymarket | 80-81°F (26.7-27.2°C) | NO | 85.5° 29.7C | 93% | 0.00 | +0.12 | 3.0 | 2 |
| NYC | ||||||||
| Highest temperature on September 5? ↗polymarket | 78-79°F (25.6-26.1°C) | NO | 80.6° 27.0C | 77% | 0.60 | +0.17 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Denver | ||||||||
| Kalshi: monthly precipitation September 2026 ↗kalshi | >2" | NO | 0.74 in | 95% | 0.00 | +0.13 | 0.6 | 2 |
| Austin | ||||||||
| Highest temperature on September 6? ↗polymarket | 96-97°F (35.6-36.1°C) | NO | 93.8° 34.3C | 83% | 0.71 | +0.12 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Highest temperature on September 5? ↗polymarket | 98-99°F (36.7-37.2°C) | NO | 95.8° 35.4C | 82% | 0.72 | +0.10 | 2.4 | 2 |
| Lowest temperature on September 6? ↗polymarket | 74-75°F (23.3-23.9°C) | NO | 76.6° 24.8C | 78% | 0.71 | +0.07 | 1.8 | 2 |
| Miami | ||||||||
| Lowest temperature on September 6? ↗polymarket | 76-77°F (24.4-25.0°C) | NO | 78.9° 26.1C | 81% | 0.69 | +0.12 | 2.1 | 2 |
| Highest temperature on September 7? ↗polymarket | 92-93°F (33.3-33.9°C) | NO | 89.2° 31.8C | 87% | 0.00 | +0.11 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Dallas | ||||||||
| Highest temperature on September 7? ↗polymarket | 98-99°F (36.7-37.2°C) | NO | 101.0° 38.3C | 81% | 0.00 | +0.11 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Seattle | ||||||||
| Highest temperature on September 5? ↗polymarket | 68-69°F (20.0-20.6°C) | NO | 69.2° 20.6C | 76% | 0.66 | +0.10 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Chicago | ||||||||
| Highest temperature on September 6? ↗polymarket | 76-77°F (24.4-25.0°C) | NO | 78.4° 25.8C | 77% | 0.68 | +0.09 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Atlanta | ||||||||
| Highest temperature on September 5? ↗polymarket | 98-99°F (36.7-37.2°C) | NO | 96.7° 35.9C | 76% | 0.68 | +0.08 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Lowest temperature on September 6? ↗polymarket | 74-75°F (23.3-23.9°C) | NO | 77.2° 25.1C | 87% | 0.79 | +0.08 | 1.6 | 2 |
Forecast accuracy · degrees off vs actual, by lead
| City | 0d | 1d | 2d | 3d | 4d | 5d | 6d | 7d | 8d | 9d | 10d | 11d | 12d | 13d | 14d | 15d | 16d | 17d | 18d | 19d | 20d | 21d | 22d | 23d | 24d | 25d | 26d | 27d | 28d | 29d | 30d | 31d | 32d | 33d | 34d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 1.8° -1.3 n80 · bt 2.0° | 1.8° -0.6 n78 · bt 1.9° | 0.6° +0.6 n2 · bt 1.9° | bt 2.0° n42 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Austin | 1.8° +1.3 n41 · bt 2.0° | 1.9° +0.8 n68 · bt 1.6° | 1.9° -1.9 n3 · bt 2.0° | bt 1.8° n45 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Chicago | 0.2° +0.2 n2 · bt 1.2° | 1.5° -0.0 n63 · bt 2.0° | 1.4° -1.3 n2 · bt 2.0° | 1.4° -1.4 n2 · bt 2.2° | 1.5° -1.5 n2 | 1.4° -1.4 n2 | 2.2° -2.2 n2 | 2.2° -2.2 n2 | 1.8° -1.8 n2 | 1.2° -1.2 n2 | 1.2° -1.2 n2 | 1.6° -1.6 n2 | 1.4° -1.4 n2 | 0.7° -0.7 n2 | 0.2° +0.0 n2 | 1.4° -1.4 n2 | 2.2° -2.2 n2 | 1.1° -1.1 n1 | 1.0° -1.0 n1 | 1.2° -1.2 n1 | 1.1° -1.1 n1 | 2.4° -2.4 n2 | 2.0° -2.0 n2 | 2.4° -2.4 n2 | 1.0° -1.0 n1 | 1.1° -1.1 n1 | 2.5° -2.5 n1 | 2.5° -2.5 n1 | 1.1° -1.1 n1 | 2.2° -2.2 n1 | 2.0° -2.0 n1 | – | – | – | – |
| Dallas | 1.7° +0.4 n80 · bt 2.0° | 1.1° +0.0 n5 · bt 2.0° | 2.3° -2.3 n2 · bt 1.8° | bt 2.0° n42 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Denver | 1.0° +0.0 n6 · bt 2.0° | 1.5° -0.5 n5 · bt 2.0° | 1.1° -0.4 n3 · bt 2.0° | bt 3.1° n45 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Houston | 1.4° +0.4 n6 · bt 0.9° | 1.6° +0.7 n78 · bt 2.0° | 2.5° +1.8 n2 · bt 1.5° | bt 2.0° n42 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Los Angeles | 1.2° +0.8 n42 · bt 2.0° | 2.4° +0.9 n140 · bt 2.8° | 1.6° +1.4 n2 · bt 2.0° | bt 1.5° n45 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Miami | 1.7° +1.1 n112 · bt 2.0° | 1.5° -1.2 n140 · bt 2.0° | 2.6° -0.4 n3 · bt 1.6° | bt 1.6° n45 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| NYC | 1.7° +0.6 n78 · bt 2.0° | 0.4° -0.4 n2 · bt 2.0° | 0.2° -0.2 n2 · bt 2.0° | 0.5° +0.3 n2 · bt 2.0° | 0.5° +0.3 n2 | 0.5° +0.5 n2 | 0.6° -0.1 n2 | 0.0° -0.0 n2 | 0.6° +0.2 n2 | 0.4° -0.4 n2 | 0.3° +0.3 n2 | 0.7° -0.4 n2 | 0.5° -0.3 n2 | 0.3° +0.3 n2 | 0.2° +0.2 n2 | 0.3° -0.0 n2 | 0.7° -0.7 n2 | 0.6° -0.6 n1 | 0.8° -0.8 n1 | 0.9° -0.9 n1 | 0.6° -0.6 n1 | 0.7° -0.7 n2 | 0.5° -0.5 n1 | 0.9° -0.9 n2 | 0.9° -0.9 n1 | 0.4° +0.4 n1 | 2.3° +2.3 n1 | 2.4° +2.4 n1 | 0.9° +0.9 n1 | 0.9° +0.9 n1 | 0.2° +0.2 n1 | 0.1° -0.1 n1 | 0.5° -0.5 n1 | 0.5° -0.5 n1 | 0.5° -0.5 n1 |
| San Francisco | 1.5° -0.9 n6 · bt 0.9° | 1.8° -1.1 n5 · bt 1.1° | 2.9° -2.9 n2 · bt 0.9° | bt 0.9° n45 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Seattle | 1.6° -0.1 n80 · bt 2.0° | 1.2° -0.4 n5 · bt 1.3° | 2.0° +0.6 n3 · bt 1.8° | 0.1° -0.1 n2 · bt 2.0° | 0.1° -0.1 n2 | 0.0° +0.0 n2 | 0.3° +0.3 n2 | 0.2° +0.2 n2 | 0.3° +0.3 n2 | 0.2° +0.2 n2 | 0.2° +0.2 n2 | 0.1° +0.0 n2 | 0.1° +0.0 n2 | 0.0° -0.0 n2 | 0.1° +0.0 n2 | 0.1° +0.1 n2 | 0.1° +0.1 n2 | 0.2° +0.2 n1 | 0.1° +0.1 n1 | 0.2° +0.2 n1 | 0.1° +0.1 n1 | 0.3° -0.3 n2 | 0.8° +0.8 n1 | 0.7° +0.7 n1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Columns are how far ahead the forecast was made: 0d = same day, 1d = one day ahead (issued the day before), higher = earlier. Each cell: MAE in °F (average miss), bias (+ warm / − cool), and n cases from live runs. bt = the 2-year backtest baseline (its MAE and n). – = not enough data yet.
Forecast calibration · CRPS, coverage, reliability by variable + lead
| Variable | 0d | 1d | 2d |
|---|---|---|---|
| TMAX | CRPS 1.029 cov 51% 78% 88% 0%-10%: 2% · 10%-20%: 15% · 90%-100%: 95% n1411 | CRPS 1.205 cov 52% 79% 88% 0%-10%: 2% · 10%-20%: 16% · 90%-100%: 80% n1450 | CRPS 0.879 cov 50% 74% 86% 0%-10%: 2% · 10%-20%: 16% · 60%-70%: 100% n234 |
| TMIN | CRPS 0.953 cov 53% 83% 90% 0%-10%: 2% · 10%-20%: 11% · 90%-100%: 100% n506 | CRPS 1.197 cov 49% 72% 84% 0%-10%: 3% · 10%-20%: 14% · 90%-100%: 53% n663 | CRPS 0.690 cov 58% 83% 89% 0%-10%: 1% · 10%-20%: 11% · 80%-90%: 100% n158 |
Pooled across all cities. CRPS = Continuous Ranked Probability Score (lower is better). cov = central-interval coverage at 50/80/90%: fraction of actuals landing inside the central predictive band. Reliability shows observed frequency per predicted-probability bin (top predicted bin plus the two largest by count). Columns = lead time in days.
Track record
Recent settled
| 09-04 | Highest temperature in Chicago on September 4? | NO | 97% | W | +0.20 |
| 09-04 | Highest temperature in Dallas on September 4? | NO | 88% | W | +0.25 |
| 09-04 | Highest temperature in Houston on September 4? | NO | 77% | W | +0.37 |
| 09-04 | Highest temperature in Los Angeles on September 4? | NO | 92% | L | -0.84 |
| 09-04 | Lowest temperature in NYC on September 4? | NO | 89% | W | +0.20 |
| 09-04 | Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 4? | NO | 98% | W | +0.14 |